Urban Land Expansion Simulation Considering the Diffusional and Aggregated Growth Simultaneously: A Case Study of Luoyang City

Restricted by urban development stages, natural conditions, form and structure, diffusional growth occupies a large proportion of area in many cities. Traditional cellular automata (CA) has been widely applied studies because it can simulate complex system evolution with simple rules. However, due to the limitation neighborhood is insufficient for simulating process. A maximum entropy mode was used estimate three layers probability spaces: layer cell transformation from non-urban status (PLCT), aggregated (PLAP), (PLOP). At same time, maxent category selected CA model (MaxEnt-CSCA) designed expansion processes simultaneously. Luoyang City, (65.29% 2009–2018), test effectiveness MaxEnt-CSCA. The results showed that: (1) MaxEnt-CSCA accurately simulated 47.40% 37.13% 2009 2018, overall Kappa coefficient 0.78; (2) prediction 2035 that future will mainly take place Luolong District counties around main area, distribution pattern change relative diffusion state aggregation stage. This paper also discusses applicable areas illustrates importance selecting an appropriate region amount growth.